Tambun

Highlights

We are upgrading our RNAV estimate for TILB, as we believe that the GDV guidance provided by management is on the conservative side.

Revaluing the new land. On 4th June, TILB acquired 209.5 acres of land in Seberang Prai for RM150m cash, or RM16.43 psf. The land is adjacent to its flagship Pearl City development on Penang mainland. Management did not guide for GDV, but we estimate it to potentially yield RM1.36bn in GDV, which implies RM6.5m GDV per acre, compared to RM5.6-6.9m/acre achieved historically in Pearl City. We believe this is reasonable TILB plans to begin developing this tract of land in 2020, and house prices are expected to rise significantly by then. We are also positive on its margin and earnings contribution given the ease of execution as TILB will be able to leverage on the existing infrastructure.

Re-jigging our RNAV. We also take the opportunity to upgrade our RNAV estimate of its existing and future projects, given we believe its guidance is on the conservative side. Overall, we estimate that its guided ASP is 20-40% lower than comparable projects in the sub-sale market.

Riding the Penang boom. Given relatively low entry cost of RM11-12 psf for its 453 acres in Pearl City, we see TILB as one of the key beneficiaries of rising real estate prices in Penang, as the long-term escalation in prices will benefit its margins and project GDV. The average house prices of Penang have risen by close to 200% since 2002 (Figure #2).

Risks

Slowdown in mainland Penang property market (unlikely), as it is 100% concentrated in Penang.

Forecasts

FY14-15 earnings forecast increased by 2-4% as we forecast the majority of the impact of rising prices on earnings to filter through post FY15.

Rating

BUY

Positives: (1) Strong beneficiary of rising land prices in Penang mainland; (2) Pearl City Flagship will provide the main earnings driver; (3) Undemanding valuations – still trading at 6.7x FY15E P/E. (4) Attractive 6.0% DY (FY15E).

Negatives: High project concentration in Penang.

Valuation

We have increased our RNAV estimate from RM2.28 to RM2.83, as we revised our GDV estimate of its projects by benchmarking the ASP of its projects vs. other developments, which are commanding prices ranging from 20-40% higher. We believe that TILB’s projects are likely to play catch-up in prices given the positive outlook for Penang mainland.

Thus, we increase our TP from RM2.05 to RM2.55 (based on unchanged 10% discount to RNAV).

- by Hong Leong Investment

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Fiamma by 闲谈股市，理财篇

闲谈股市，理财篇 

这一篇，是一位女网友，熬夜读年报，发送我，她自己对fiamma做的功课
看了她的分析，真的很开心，因为大家都开始懂得自己做功课
我接此机会，和大家分享这位女网友的功课
这就是所谓的8k精神，提倡自己做分析，自己做买卖

【文章如下：】
最近看你都聊Fiamma。我和老公之前也大概看过Fiamma所以我也来献丑。纯粹只是做个分享。很谢谢我老公陪我熬夜读资料。

【你了解这家公司的生意模式吗？】
Fiamma是一家已上市超过15年的公司。从事家电和产业领域。其重心业务是分销（电器，厨房设备，浴室设备以及保健产品）是一家家电产品分销商，不涉及零售和出口业。家电业务的经营手法是分销价格大众化的产品，以本地市场为主，目前对出口业不感兴趣(曾经有过出口失败的例子）。家具店，五金店，电器店，广场等都是Fiamma家电业务的客户。家电业务的目标用户都集中在中产阶级，所以旗下的产品价格都属于大众化。目前的家电品牌有(ELBA,FABER,TUSCANI,MEC,Rubine,OMRON,HAUSTERN,Whirlpool等)。Fiamma另一个收入来源是着重于产业发展业务。其产业发展目前涉及的区域位于吉隆坡Jalan Yap Kwan Seng(Commercial Development)和Jalan Tunku Abdul Rahman(CommercialDevelopment),以及柔佛Kota Tinggi(Residential Development)和Bandar Johor Bahru(Residential and Commercial Development)。

【公司的管理层，管理素质如何？】
Fiamma创办人之一，CEO Lim Choo Hong在家电业和产业拥有超过30年的家电经验，以及不少过15年的产业业务经验。根据资汇报道，LCH希望产业发展可以为公司带来显著的净利贡献。管理层的经营策略是运用大众化的价格攻入本地家电市场，把焦点放在分销业务和品牌建设，专注于强化旗下的产品品牌组合和售后服务，以及改善产品素质。公司每年都会拨出超过10million的广告开销以大力宣传家电品牌。 同时管理层也积极推动产业发展。管理层在产业方面会采取更谨慎的态度以避免销售表现欠佳而蒙受亏损。

【小环境：公司的基本面好不好？目前是不是被低估了？公司的基本技术面好不好？交易量如何？】

是一家净现金公司。我称它为快速成长型公司。因为接下来它的成长会慢慢爆发。Dividend Yield 至少3%以上，接下来可能会给更多。管理层的素质对我来说算很好的，有远见，有计划。Chairmen's Statement内容也很到位。目前还是属于被低估的公司。交易量开始有了，股价超越了20与50天的的平均线。短期来看开始被看好。

【大环境：利率，汇率，政府政策的影响，政治环境，通货膨胀，货币政策，经济周期等对公司有什么影响？】

银行利率上升，会影响借贷从而影响了想要购买产业的人，当然产业发展商也因此无法受惠。汇率对Fiamma来说不造成太大的影响，因为没有出口业务。我想大家最担心的还是2015年4月实施的GST政府政策。我看了很多关于GST如何影响产业价格。有的报道说GST后产业会更贵。有的报道说GST后产业价格会下跌。不管GST对产业的影响是怎么样，想买房子的还是会买，想投资的还是继续投资。因为人会随着环境的改变而改变投资的手法。至于家电业务，由于电费调涨的关系，可能会另一些人不买电器。不过长期来看，家电业务不会因为电费调帐而受太大的影响。

【你如何看待公司的前景？5年以后公司是否还存在？】

摘自Q2'14季报，管理层对公司的前景看待：
For the tradingand services segment, Fiamma will remain focused on itsdistribution business and will continue to build on its proven core competencies and effective supply chain system to remain a market leader for its products. It will continue to invest in brand building and promotional activities to strengthen and expand its distribution network forits various brands of home appliances, sanitaryware products and medicaldevices and healthcare products.
For the propertydevelopment segment, the on-going commercial development locatedin Kuala Lumpur, the residential development in Kota Tinggi, Johor and proposed development of residentialand commercial properties in Johor Bahru willcontribute to the Group’s revenue and profit for the financial years 2014 and 2015. Otherproposed new projectsincluding commercial development in Kuala Lumpur and Johor Bahru are expected to contribute to the Group’s future income stream once theseproposed developmentsare launched and sold.

Fiamma在家电业务方面对我来说还是乐观的。虽然Q2'14 PBT比Q2'13 PBT下降了18.6%(由于营运费用的增长)。电器，厨房设备，浴室设备以及保健产品多多少少对大众来说还是不可缺少的设备。加上Fiamma分销的产品都以中产阶级人士为目标所以销售方面还是可以很乐观。家电销售是属于抗跌性极高的领域，在大马人口和房屋的销售增长下，家电业务也会因此而占上风。Fiamma本身也介入产业发展，可以install自己的分销产品以提供一站式的服务（瞎扯），整体来看家电业还是有看头的。另一点就是，最近马来西亚的天气热到爆（瞎扯），我相信多多少少电器如冷气，风扇都应该会有销售，可能又贡献了一点点的盈利。

至于，产业发展方面接下来应该会为公司的bottom line带来很excellent的成绩。
在2008年，Fiamma以RM16.58million收购了两家公司位于Kota Tinggi,Johor并拥有7.7英亩地库(freehold),34units已建好的shop houses/lots,11.3英亩地库(freehold),85.7英亩地库(Leasehold),16units已建好单层和双层排屋.可想而知，2008年买进的地库现在值得的价钱肯定比当时更高。
7.7英亩的地库会用于以下的发展：
(EstimatedGDV=RM37.1million, Estimated GDC=RM28.2million, Estimated Profit=RM8.9million,Estimated Profit Margin=24%)

11.3英亩的地库用于以下的发展：
(EstimatedGDV=RM45.6million, Estimated GDC=RM39.1million, Estimated Profit=RM6.5million,Estimated Profit Margin=14%)

85.7英亩的地库用于以下的发展：
(EstimatedGDV=RM175.794million, Estimated GDC=RM141.723million, EstimatedProfit=RM34.071million, Estimated Profit Margin=20%)

～2010年，16units双层排屋已建好和推行，另20units双层排屋已推行预计2011年可建好。

～2011年，Kota Tinggi房产计划只完成了one phase of double storey residential houses，其原因是因为那里房产市场开始降温，导致管理层不得不谨慎于推行new phases。我想2008年Kota Tinggi的房产计划(Taman Kota Jaya)似乎没能顺利进展。

～2012年，位于吉隆坡Jalan Tunku Abdul Rahman的产业计划(Menara Antara)于2012年3月开始施工，此产业计划是兴建中价办公楼和零售店面。Estimated GDV=RM160million.至于profit是多少我猜应该可以有个20%的Profit Margin.Estimated Profit应该可以达到RM32million.此项计划预计可在2014年年尾完成。既然是兴建办公楼和零售店面，Fiamma也会拿下几间的办公楼和零售店面作为出租用途以增加额外的房地产收入。至于Kota Tinggi new phases双层排屋已建好和推行，房产计划还是继续放缓。另一项产业计划位于

～2013年，Menara Antara的产业贡献了PBT RM5.715million.此计划将在2014年年末竣工，相信可为2014年的财报带来美丽的数字。Fiamma的另两项产业计划位于柔佛Bandar Johor Bahru以及吉隆坡Jalan Yap Kwan Seng。位于Bandar Johor Bahru的产业计划(Vida Residenz)的(Estimated GDV=RM203million, EstimatedGDC=RM164million, Estimated Profit=RM39million, Estimated Profit Margin=19%)。Vida Residenz很靠近柔佛新的高速公路朝向Nusajaya以及前往新加坡的second link expressway。目前得到的资料是Vida Residenz靠近马来区域，加上一向治安不是很好或许对产业买卖会造成一定的影响。在网上也看到一些资料说construction暂时delay了。必须要做进一步的考察才能判定。位于JalanYap Kwan Seng的产业计划的(Estimated GDV=RM200million, Estimated ProfitMargin=20%, Estimated Profit=40million)。Jalan Yap Kwan Seng地库会用于兴建高级公寓(Service Apartments),两栋40层楼的高级公寓。网上也有说吉隆坡目前公寓已是供过于求，我觉得人口渐渐增加，加上外来投资者的增加，需求还是有的。Vida Residenz和Jalan Yap Kwan Seng的Service Aparment将会是贡献2014以及2015年的利润。

Fiamma的前景其实是备受看好的，产业计划陆续展开，如果深入探讨年报，你还会看到很多很好的资料。家电业务暂时属于平稳阶段，希望日后管理层有更还的家电计划可以派上用场。当然万事无绝对，Fiamma的前景可能会因为第4大环境的影响而影响公司盈利。

【与同行比较，公司的优点是什么？】
可以参考其他家电业务和产业业务然后做个比较。

【 会买进这只股的原因？要是1-6都保持乐观，股价再跌，是否会考虑买进？】
前景明朗,公司收入来源的前景可以到2017年。公司业务简单明了，不复杂。股票还是被低估。要是以上都保持不变，RM1.9以下我都考虑加码。

【会卖出此股的原因是什么？】
管理层玩野。找到另一家更好更多回筹的公司。

Jaya Tiasa

The following is an extract from RHB’s article of 17^th June 2014 quote: We believe palm oil should start trading higher, especially after its price has recovered above the MYR2,400 level. The current hot and dry spell in Malaysia, due to the southwest monsoon that is expected to persist until September, will hurt palm oil production – much like in Jan-Feb this year. Also, tensions in Iraq are boosting crude oil prices and biodiesel margins, which will increase demand. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.

If you study the above table carefully you will notice that Jaya Tiasa has the best profit growth rate. Its P/E ratio for 2014 and 2015 are 15.5 and 11.4. Moreover, its EV/ha is about the cheapest.

After having read this RHB’s article, I realize that I have to write this article to correct the wrong impression which I may have given at my recent investment seminar on 1^st June.

During the seminar I said that no share  could continuously to go up or come down for whatever reasons and we must take advantage of this phenomenon to make money. I said as an example, Jaya Tiasa, had gone up about 30% from Rm 2.10 to Rm 2.72 in the last 5 months. I sold some to take some profit and to reduce my margin loan. I also said that you could always back Jaya Tiasa when it was cheaper.

Now is the best time to buy back Jaya Tiasa. - by Mr. Koon Yew Yin

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The price has gone up 30% from 2.10 to 2.70 for the last 5 months. Now the it swings at 2.50 while all people were frightened because Mr. Koon said he was selling it. Actually selling part of it because he want to lower his margin for safety issue as the price has gone up.

Every signs Jtiasa shows was good except the high gearing debt and cashless position. So, this is a bit risky? Warren Buffet said never lose your money. The very important condition for me to buy a stock after all the filtering is CHEAP. The cheapest price you bought among all people in the market let you stand firm and less risk.

Last 6 years Jtiasa was aggressively planting oil palm, and now Jtiasa was building oil mill. Everything is good but waiting El-nino to come and the CPO price to re-bounce seasonally.

Assume the price can go to RM3000 per tonne from RM2300, and Jtiasa CPO produced can get 10000 metric tonnes instead of 6000mT. It can make RM15mil more and RM4mil was contributed by the CPO price alone, and this is monthly!

Another important thing was the business type of the stock, which was unique and commonly being used by majority of people, palm oil. And this was going to be more and more useful when bio-diesel going to be implemented. What WB bought was Coca-cola, Wells Fargo bank, American Express, Walmart and etc. 

17 SEP '14 (update): As the CPO price dropped to a 5 years low, JTIASA also dropped to 2.04 the lowest in pass 1 year. However, the production yield was keep increasing and remember the age of the palm was so young and expected to product more fruits.

MITRA

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For a small cap listed corp like Mitrajaya (RM357mil), secured RM1.10bil is a very impressive result and this amount expected to take 30 months to complete, RM90mil to RM120mil revenue for each quarter. This has been proved for the 31 Mar 2014 by getting RM104mil.

Today MD, Tan Eng Piow said that they will secure another RM400mil more at least, since they are bidding RM3.0bil projects.

Currently it's biggest project is MACC building in Putrajaya (RM428mil), and Condo project for UEM Sunrise Bhd, Cyberjaya (RM277mil). So they were targeting RM500mil to RM600mil for the revenue of 2014.

On the other hand, Mitra also has impressive result on property division: Luxury Condo in Wangsa Maju (GDV: RM650mil, soft launch at July, official launch in Sept or Oct).

Puchong, Selangor 15acres of land was on planning stage, carry GDV: RM1.5bil. This development features a 5-stories mall, 3-blocks of apartment, and one block of boutique hotel.


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We did a rough estimation about taking 50% of the targeted revenue by construction division only: RM250mil. Construction is a very competitive business and we take count only 12% for the profit margin: RM30mil.

Since the condos in Wangsa Maju only completed the 1st phase, I dumbly assume that is a quarter of the whole project, so 70% of it would be RM113mil reveune. Property should contribute higher profit margin but we assume only 18% about RM20mil.

Total estimate profit could go as high as RM50mil. For a small cap MITRA, this is a very good sign, at least for next 30 months. But under a good management leader of Mr. Tan I can say Mitra will go better and better until it reaches a bottleneck. And, that's depend on how management works with Mitra.

Update 19 June '14: Mitrajaya is on track to achieve its RM1.5bn order book for FY14. Outstanding order book curently stood at RM1.1bn. This is not an issue as the group is bidding for RM3bn worth of jobs. Key projects in tender include RM600m worth of jobs in Rapid and RM620m building works in Nusajaya worth RM620m.

Cold Eye listed 5 important criteria to pick stock - by Intelligent Investor.

1.    Return on Equity (ROE)

2.    Cash Flow from Operations (OCF) and Free Cash Flow (FCF)

3.    Price-Earning Ratio (P/E)

4.    Dividend Yield (DY)

5.    Net Tangible Asset (NTA) per share

Return on Equity (ROE)

• Investor want to have a reasonable return from the capital for the equity put in.
• The return rate depend on the business risk.
• You would want to have a risk that higher than a risk free rate. Says, bank FD provide interest rate of 4%, you will target for a min return say 10%-15% (6% - 11% above FD rate) for the risk you take.
• [Note]: There is some issues and pitfall on ROE, do perform DuPont analysis on the ROE, or alternately I prefer to use ROIC. 

* Attributing Profit/Total Equity = ROE.

Cash Flow

• Business owner would expect debtors pay you promptly and you don;t have to stock up a lot of inventories which tied up your capital.
• Else, you have to put in more capital each year even you make one.
• Do expect the hard cash received must be about the earnings each year.
• For each year, the business need capex to keep it going (so the owner can ear more in future) - e.g. buy more/replenish equipment, buy/open more shops.
• It would be good if the CAPEX can be met with the cash I received from operations and owner no need to come up with more money.
• It will be fantastic if there is still leftover money to draw out as dividend, or the company can have extra money to invest in other lucrative business.
• Check
• Average OCF same as reported earnings over the years?
• Is FCF in general positive over the years?
• Is the average FCF >= 5% of Revenue?
• [Note]: You may want to read more on Cash Flow Statement Analaysis.

* most of the failed business was caused by bad cash flow.

Price-Earning Ratio (P/E)

• A business might not be a right investment if price is not right. If you buy a business with good ROE (say 30%)  on P/E of 33 will only give you a earnings yield of only 3%, which means the price was too expensive, in another words its over-valued by the market. 
• If the yield is less than FD, you may want to put the money to bank to earn risk free return.
• The prowess in investing is not knowing how to buying great companies at any price, but good companies at a cheap price.
• We should look for company < 10 or < 15 (good company with growth prospect)
•  [Note]: P/E will ignore the debt an cash on the balance sheet. EV and EBIT is a good alternative if an investor want to take care on this item. 

* this will leads you to buy cheap stock.  

Dividend Yield (DY)

• How nice if my bussiness can have extra cash (FCF) after CAPEX investment and the left over money send back to owner as Dividend. (You may want to read more on Cash Flow Statement Analaysis.)
• This way, the owner can have additional money to spend while the business is still growing and the dividend is likely ti increase in the future.
• DY = Dividend per Share for a Year / Stock Price
• It could be a good investment if DY > FD rate.

* Dividend is a granted return for investor. If you able to re-invest the dividend, you will reach to your target sooner.

Net Tangible Asset (NTA) per share

• Investor can recoup the initial investment if the NTA worth more than what he put in.
• If the NTA per share > stock price, you may be in for a bargain.
• More valuable (e.g. hard cash, property, land) asset is better.
• Receivables - debtors might not want to pay me.
• Inventories - it may be outdated.
• Some business (e.g. service industry) where the important assets is not tangible e.g. its technology, brand name, people.

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The cold eye's criteria was very good guide for investor to keep in mind and use to filter bad stock no matter how other people recommend you. 

However, I would like to add another important criteria, that was because there are 2000 of stocks existing in market and we need to get the best out of the best. Future growth prospect, we need to judge how was the management level of the company doing, and the future of the business segment involved. We need to discover some unpopular stocks but possess the growth prospect. In premise, we need to ensure the company is in healthy situation, and the only problem was being too cold or unpopular. This type of stock normally do not or giving little dividend. However, we do gain from the price sooner or later when the price re-rated by the market alone. 

* we need to understand thoroughly the background, financial, on-going or planning projects, everything in order to reduce the risk and maximize the profit from purchasing this type of stock. 

Benalec

Benalec has further extended the period of validity for the term sheet for the signing of the Tanjung Piai land reclamation deal for an additional duration of six months from June-14 to finalise the terms and conditions. The extended duration shall come into effect from 12 June 2014 until 11 December 2014. (BMSB) 

We are not surprised of this further delay given the lack of major progress made in the earlier part of this year. This is a negative development, which represents the third delay since 2013. We suspect that the major hurdle continues to be the environmental impact assessment (EIA) approval, and commitment from the main client. Nevertheless, we understand that full submission of the EIA is to be made soon.

Source: CIMB Daybreak - 13 June 2014

EPS has dropped 34% to 7.07 sen compared to year 2012. Current assets have increased 24.3% to RM933.6mil, but it was because increase of inventories & receivables. 

The highlight of Benalec was because the type of business involved was unique which was land reclamation. Yet, further delay was really a bad news for Benalec to be re-rated. 

But for longer term, Benalec has secured a 415 acres (RM204mil) reclamation contract from Oriental group, and it takes 30 months to complete all phase, expected to start contributes into profit by end of 2015 to 2017. 

By some rough calculation, as before the reclamation project has a profit margin of 15~20%. Revenue of RM200mil can yields RM30mil of gross profit. 2 years consisting 8 quarters, so Benalec has RM3.75mil of gross profit evenly each quarter, or RM15mil gross profit annually (about 21.7% of 2013 profit).

This project's contribution was not strong enough. Benalec disposed Melaka reclamation land and  it's receivables reached new high about RM600mil. It expected to retrieve the amount by four financial years. RM150mil each year! That was too good to be true, but in premise, Benalec has to be good in dealing with debtors. 

CPO imported by India has declined. by The Edge

(June 11): Palm oil imports by India, the world’s largest buyer, probably declined in May as refiners and traders bought more soybean and sunflower oils amid forecasts for record global supplies. Futures in Kuala Lumpur fell.

Shipments of the main crude and refined palm oils dropped 12 percent to 668,000 metric tons, the median of estimates from six processors and brokers compiled by Bloomberg show. Purchases of crude soybean oil more than tripled to 186,000 tons, while sunflower imports more than doubled to 150,000 tons, the survey showed. The Solvent Extractors’ Association of India typically publishes the data around mid-month.

Soybean oil’s premium over palm, the world’s most-used cooking oil, narrowed to average $91 a ton this year from $244 a ton in 2013, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s spurred importers to stockpile soybean oil and cut purchases of palm, says Sunvin Group, a broker in Mumbai. World output of seven major oilseeds will be a record 487.5 million tons in the year to Sept. 30, according to Oil World in Hamburg.

“The soybean oil-palm oil gap was very narrow two months ago, encouraging commitments for soybean oil imports,” Sandeep Bajoria, chief executive officer of Sunvin, said by phone on June 9. “The gap has started increasing in the last two weeks and Indian importers have started looking at palm oil again.”

India imports more than 50 percent of its cooking oil demand, shipping palm from Indonesia and Malaysia, and soybean oil from the U.S., Brazil and Argentina.

Monsoon Threat

Stockpiles at ports and due to arrive to India may total 1.35 million tons at the start of June, Bajoria said. Reserves fell to 1.17 million tons a month ago, the lowest since January 2011, when the extractors’ association began compiling data.

“The possibility of a monsoon failure and an El Nino have also motivated some people to buy in advance,” Ashok Sethia, executive director of Sethia Oils Ltd., said from Kolkata.

The monsoon, which provides more than 70 percent of annual rainfall, will be 93 percent of a 50-year average from June to September as an El Nino emerges, the India Meteorological Department said on June 9. An El Nino weather pattern, which brings drought to the Asia-Pacific region and heavier-than-usual rain to South America, may be established by August, Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology said on June 3.

Palm oil production may decline as much as 15 percent if El Nino occurs and futures may trade between 2,650 ringgit ($827) a ton and 2,850 ringgit a ton from August, IOI Corp. Chief Executive Officer Lee Yeow Chor said yesterday.

Futures fell 0.3 percent to 2,379 ringgit a ton on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives, the lowest price at close for a most-active contract since Oct. 14. Prices are down 11 percent this year.

Total vegetable oil imports, including for industrial use, increased 8.9 percent to 1.06 million tons from 917,964 tons, according to the survey. Vegetable oil imports in the six months through April dropped 2 percent to 5.16 million tons, according to the extractors’ association.

MUDAJAYA - 1

2014年6月9日星期一 

之前只谈mudajaya的现况，而未来只专注发表印度发电厂而已。这一篇就谈一谈这家公司比较长远的未来吧。

集团代表Ando已经有说过：公司未来的业务中心，又建筑领域转去可带入经常性收入的领域。未来5年内目标这个领域的占有率是60～70%。而2014年可以说一个开垦年了

Power segment : The segment reported revenue and PBT of RM1.4 million and RM0.6 million for the current quarter ended 31 March 2014. There were no comparative results for the preceding quarter as this segment only commenced commercial operations in the current quarter. These results were derived from the 5MW solar energy generating plant at Gebeng, Pahang.

税前盈利0.6million的确对目前集团的总盈利占不到1%，不过公司这几年的收购和拼购可以看得出公司的转型是很明确的：

1. 印度与RKM联合经营的4座1440兆瓦的发电厂：

• 发电准证25年
• 燃料供应合约签20年
• 预计第一二座2014年下半年开始启动，而第三四座会在2015年上半年启动。
• 第一个10年的盈利是免征的。
• 预计每年贡献一亿马币或者EPS0.18
• 集团准备再兴建与经营两座总发电量4000MW的发电厂，目前还没下文。

2. 旗下子公司special universal在Gebeng，Pahang的太阳能发电厂：

• 5MW的太阳能发电厂已经开始贡献盈利
• 10MW的太阳能发电厂于今年5月投产
• 这家子公司已经与TNB签下21年再生能源购电协议
• TNB目标2020年再生能源是2020MW，而目前公司的15MW供应有十分大的发展空间
• 最大竞争者，Cypark 2014年预计供应22.3MW

3. 以18.5million马币购入印尼PT Harmoni 70%股权：

• 拥有25年的Build own transfer 煤炭发电厂合约
• 目前拥有两座总发电14MW煤炭发电厂
• 为印尼这个发电覆盖率还是很低的国家而增设发电厂而铺路

4. 收购菲利宾Amihan能源机构的40%股权：

• 一家发电厂经营公司
• 拥有政府颁发的25年风力发电独家经营权
• 未来5年目标发展200MW的风力发电厂
• 最近与中国公司合作兴建菲利宾第二座50MW的风电场，预计今年年尾完成。

5.与官有缘合作创立SPV进军缅甸发电厂：

• 利用官有缘与缅甸政府的良好关系来提高发电厂合约的成功率
• 预计成功的话会效仿印度的4座460MW方法来建厂，预计盈利贡献1亿或者EPS0.18
• 目前状况还没有结论。

6.与姐妹公司马化控股联营发展的住宅和商业区计划。

• 位于tropicana价值GDV7亿马币
• 集团持有49%的股权。
• 预计2015年首季动工，同时间也开始推介计划
• 发展期4～5年
• 预计进账约40million马币或者EPS0.07

除了第6项是一次性的收入，1～5项都是持续性收入的。

确认性高的而且贡献大的只有第一项的印度发电厂。

不过第二项的大马太阳能发电厂，第三项印尼发电厂，第四项的菲利宾风力发电厂都是高成长的项目。未来盈利的贡献不可低估。

缅甸发电厂有关有缘的加持成功率的机会是十分高的。

比较担心的是集团2013的自由现金流是一亿马币，总债务4.3亿马币。

所以不难理解长期公司只把20%的盈利拿来派息。不过集团主席Ando说过，未来集团的持续性收入比例提高时有机会会设立股息政策。

以现在的派息率20%，股息3%。

40%的话，股息6%

60%的话，股息9%

以上还是盈利保持而已，还没估算常年的盈利增长。

虽然公司的确有一点风险，不过还是在我可以承受的范围。

目前Mudajaya是我投资组合的第二大公司，加码与否还有看看印度发电厂的进度，希望不要再延迟了吧。。。哈哈哈。

   

http://mesoon79.blogspot.com/2014/06/mudajaya.html

As what Mesoon said, the company is less cash position, gearing 0.391. Cash dropped to RM67.6mil from RM340.7mil 2012. But Mr. Koon always mentioned about an corp is non-effective if one doesn't know how to use borrowings to do business. He is the founder of 3 listed companies, so what he saw Mudajaya was under-pressed in matter of price. Since the corp has invested so many money onto projects involving power plant. 

According to historical EPS, 2010 was the year Mudajaya hits the highest 0.51sen EPS. The secured IPP in India was going to contributes 18sen (35% of the contribution). This rough calculation doesn't count others on going IPP at Philippines, Myammar, and Indonesia. 

RM447.9mil current liabilities, roughly 5% interest p.a will take RM22mil away. The India IPP yield about RM80~RM100mil. which is more than enough for Mudajaya to recover easily from debts. Furthermore, current liabilities were lesser RM540mil 2012 (17% lesser). Investing activities cost RM178mil only, compared to RM278mil year 2012. Finance also return RM55mil. All these steps was reducing the gearing, and let the profit awaiting ahead.

2013 ROE was 12.5%. 

Everything was fine. Just waiting the India IPP to start operation. Buy at 2.48 and this price was lasted 2 years more already. Under-valued while current PE was 9.79 only. This price was PE 6.5 if India IPP start yielding profit. If PE back to normal possition of 8, the price should be 3.04 (minimum estimation)

Recommend: Buy within 2.40 to 2.50. 

TROP

业绩分析 (Result Analysis)

个人认为，产业股是不能看单一季的业绩，因为每个工程的盈利进账时机都不一样。

Q1FY14的报告，未入账销售为RM2.4bil。
这次的业绩那么差，主要是上次有卖资产的影响。
其次，这次的盈利主要被行政及其他开支和融资成本（Administrative and other expenses & finance cost）蛀掉了。这些费用比起去年的同一季，多了RM30.5mil。
还有，这次分发给回子公司的盈利，Non-controlling interests，特别多，RM11.8mil。反而，去年的同一季为负-RM1.5mil。主要原因是因为很多收入/费用都由合资子公司(JV)的工 程得来。（注：前贴的预算，都忘了这个NCI的影响而造成不准确的效果。）

接下来只要降低消费（打广告和传闻说今年的分红很高），加上接下来会有更高的销售值，就能把每股盈利（eps）拉高。

I think we should not base on a single quarter result to conclude the performance of a property company. This is because each of the sales billing stages are different.

Q1FY14 has reported the unbilled sales increased to RM2.4bil.
This Q1 result looks terrible because of the previous year of same quarter has reported with extra earning from assets disposal.
Second, the earning was eroded by high administrative & other expenses and finance cost. It is RM30.5mil more than the previous year of same quarter.
Lastly, the non-controlling interests (NCI) for this quarter is reported as RM11.8mil which is much different than the previous year of same quarter (negative amount of -RM1.5mil). This is due to most of the income/expenses for this quarter is generated/incurred from the Joint-Venture projects. (Attn: For the previous posts, this NCI is not put in the consideration which caused the calculation is incorrect.)

For the coming quarters, the eps should lift up as long as company do reduce the cost & expenses since the unbilled sales is in the increasing path. For this quarter, I guess the cost & expenses for advertisement is high in order to push sales aggressively. From the rumours, the year end bonus to the company's employees is pretty impressive as well.



2014年资产销售盈利 (Asset Sales Contribution for year 2014)

以下为今年的卖地的盈利（必须要在FY2014预测中完成买卖合约）。

Below will be the land disposal income in 2014 (must be realized within FY2014).

19-Mar-14        PROPOSED DISPOSAL BY SAPPHIRE INDEX SDN BHD, A WHOLLY-OWNED SUBSIDIARY OF TROPICANA, OF LEASEHOLD LAND

        Sales                          470.7        mil
        Net Gain                    170.0        mil
        EPS                           12.24        sen
        Completion                FY2014 (2H)

29-Nov-13        PROPOSED DISPOSAL

        Sales                          132.4      mil
        Net Gain                    42.0        mil
        EPS                           3.02        sen
        Completion                FY2014 (Q3)


2014全年盈利粗算法 (Rough earning calculation by annually)

产业股的盈利进账应该要以全年才可以比较好去预测。以下的数据，只是给予粗算的参考（详细算法就不多讲了）。预测盈利分为以3-4年的方式进账。如果某些工程是在2年内进账，就会造成前期的预测带来比较高的每股盈利。这也会导致后期的预测将会带来比较低的每股盈利。

The sales billing for a property company should make estimation according to yearly basic. Below calculation table is just for rough estimation reference (not going to instruct in details). The estimation is according to 3-4 years billing stages. If there is any sales to be billed within 2 years, it will cause the early stage of eps to become higher. As a result, the latter stage of eps will be lower.

2014每季盈利粗算法 (Rough earning calculation by quarterly)

以下的数据，再把以上的年数做成以每季的粗算。纯属房屋销售的盈利，2014年的每个盈利应该在eps 10sen范围。

The yearly eps figure can be further breakdown to quarterly for another rough estimation as per table below. From here, can see the property sales earning in 2014 is estimated to be around eps 10sen.

2015年资产销售盈利 (Asset Sales Contribution for year 2015)

公司还有2bil的资产要卖。预测接下来的2年还是会有陆续一次性的收入。
除了超多的未入账销售，丽阳跟其他产业公司不一样的就是这个连续性的一次性的收入。

最近卖的那个地，已经为公司明年的业绩打了一个eps 10sen的基础。再参考回以上的每季盈利粗算法图，就有一个粗性预测的2015年每股盈利数目了。

The company still has RM2bil assets put on sales. I guess the one time off contribution still can last for 2 years down the road. Aside from high unbilled sales, this continuous extra contribution does make TROP become attractive.

The latest land disposal below, has guaranteed the company granted with an extra of eps 10sen for FY2015. By referring to the above table (Rough earning calculation by quarterly), the FY2015's rough estimation on eps number should able to figure out.

8-May-14        i) PROPOSED JOINT VENTURE; AND ii) PROPOSED LAND DISPOSAL

        Sales                         448.4        mil
        Net Gain                   145.0        mil
        EPS                          10.44        sen
        Completion                FY2015


总结 (Summary)

如无意外，2014年卖地数目的进账可以贡献eps 15sen。加上今年的房屋销售盈利，预测2014全年业绩会在eps 25sen多的范围。

单单看每股盈利（尤其是加上一次性的收入），其实并不是很吸引。业绩以外的要点，其实已经在之前的贴提过了。

这次投资的选择，看来比以往的选择来的差。但是笔者还是相信，此股只要守下去，都不会亏钱。也许会比较浪费时间。可以肯定的，这个股是不适合长期持有。买卖的决定，就交回给大家了。

If there is no sudden change, the 2014's contribution from assets sales will come with eps 15sen. By adding in the contribution from property sales, its annualized earning will be eps 25sen+.

Purely looking on its eps (especially on asset disposal income), it seem not too impressive. In fact, aside from eps focus, I have mentioned the other key points in previous posts.

This stock pick seem like the worst choice so far. Anyhow, I still believe this investment will generate profit as long as you willing to hold it, but it may waste some of your valuable time on it. Anyway, it is definitely not a stock for long term. Now, the trading decision is up to you to decide. 

http://whytoocare-y2k.blogspot.com/2014/06/trop-q1fy14-q1fy14-result-review.html