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Sunday, June 8, 2014

TSH

TSH 这个股我 4 ,5 年前就留意了,我觉得 TSH 将会是未来的油棕业龙头之一,目前很多大型的油棕公司,它们的油棕树树龄都已经很老,翻种的速度又很慢,所以那些拥有很多年轻油棕树的公司将会有优势,TSH 就是其中一间。 再说,TSH 研究一种新的油棕品种,叫做 Ramet,花了几年的时间来研究,去年研究成功,也开始在印尼的土地里种植,这种 Ramet 能达到 35 tons per hectare 的产量,这是相当惊人的,目前最高产量的应该还是 IOI,最高峰期只是可以去到 30 tons 左右。 TSH 拥有超过 100,000 hectares 的地,每年种植 4000 hectares,目前还有 65,000 hectares 的地还未种植,可以说地库是没有问题的,种植了的土地有 70% 是还未成熟的。 不记得几时了,TSH 还拿到政府颁的土地,用来种植森林树木,TSH 也拿一部分来种植橡胶,应该多几年就可以收割。 TSH 为一让人担忧的是财务方面,因为不断地收购土地导致负债很高,我观察了几年,发现管理层自有一套处理负债的方式,如之前卖 Pontian Plantation 来拿资金就是其中一个方式。 总的来说,TSH 的前景是亮丽的,但要小心一点就是,如果发生金融风暴之类的问题,负债高的 TSH 将会面对另一个挑战。 注: 数字方面我是凭记忆写出来的,可能和实际的数字有差异。

 ~乡下佬~ 31.05.2014


Market Cap: RM3.244bil
Share Issued: 903.828mil
Price: RM3.59 (8th June 2014)

Gearing has reached 1.137 but ROE is good to remain at double digit 14.225% for year 2013, profit: RM157mil from revenue of RM1.017bil (profit margin: 15.4%)


From 2012 the price went up from RM2.00 to now RM3.59 (79.5% upside) while the net profit went up from RM77mil to RM151mil (96% upward). It was considered under-valued although the PE now was 20.45. Like what the investor said, the only drawback was the huge debt. It was also the reason that TSH can't afford to give dividend. We can put TSH into a tracking list.



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